Saturday, December 22, 2007
Media Predictions for 2008: Everything Changes...or Not. Ponders Business Week's Jon Fine
This has been quite a year in our industry. What's ahead in 2008? Will things change as much we might expect? I caught up with Business Week's media columnist Jon Fine a couple to get his take on developments in technology and media business for 2008.
Jon wonders how much things will really change. He notes that despite all the new launches and hype, certain things have remained the same including network television's strong advertising position and, on the mobile side, notwithstanding the iPhone launch, mobile phones a media platform in the United States are in a sorry state.
Here's Jon's 2008 predictions in Business Week.
Here's my video of Jon.
-- Andy Plesser
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Jon, it's difficult to rate many of your predictions as "big" stories for 2008, let alone as Black Swan discontinuities of the sort postulated by Nassim Taleb. As written, the topics tend to represent either slow evolution or devolution of existing conditions. What kinds of predictions might be wildly wrong - or amazingly prescient if they came to pass? Some thoughts/starters for your consideration: 1. AOL announces that the Writers' Digital Collective (seven of the country's top writers and showrunners) have signed to develop several first-run series for the internet, via BitTorrent, Joost, YouTube and the new BBC/ITV/Channel4 'Kangaroo' download service. 2. Apple Releases Kindle 2.0 and everyone wants it. 3. Google buys NBC Universal and introduces context-sensitive TV ads through nanotechnology. 4. Second Life hosts a sell-out Beatles Reunion Event and crashes the entire internet. Crazy rumours fly about the famous folk behind the George & John avatars.