Historically, the Superbowl has been the big TV event on which advertisers will spend big to reach big audiences on one hit. But, in the social video age, what does the Superbowl opportunity look like?

“Back in the day, everyone waited to see that ad,” says Unruly Media‘s US president Richard Kosinski. “We’ve actually found that 60% of the most shared Superbowl ads of all time actually were released well before the game itself.”

Unruly should know. The video analysis provider, which published the Viral Video Chart, has collected sharing data on some 425 billion videos ever posted online.

Kosinksi says Unruly helps marketers establish whether their videos might go viral by using panels of people to ascertain up to 18 psychological responses and eight social motivations to test ads.

“We’re in a sea of video content,” he adds. “Emarketer recently published a study that the likelihood of a video getting over million views is less than six tenths of one percent. “The days of posting and praying are over.”

Unruly’s Superbowl stats, detailed here, suggest it takes 57 video views to generate one share of a Superbowl-linked commercial.

We interviewed Kosinski at Beet.TV’s annual executive retreat in Vieques, Puerto Rico.